Financial Statement Analysis

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 13:36:33 GMT
User

I want to do an enterprise valuation of Walmart as of the end of 2010. I will start from Walmart's income statements and balance sheets for 2009 and 2010. I want to revise those statements to calculate NOPAT instead of net income and to calculate Invested Capital. When I am finished with enterprise valuation, I will want to compute the equity value. Can you help with that if I upload the past statements?

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:12:31 GMT
J
Julius

I'll help you perform an enterprise valuation of Walmart using their 2009-2010 financial statements. This will involve several steps:

  1. First, we'll need to:
  • Adjust the income statement to calculate NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
  • Reorganize the balance sheet to calculate Invested Capital
  • Remove non-operating items
  • Make necessary tax adjustments
  1. Then we can:
  • Calculate the free cash flows
  • Determine an appropriate growth rate and WACC
  • Perform DCF analysis to get enterprise value
  • Adjust for debt and cash to arrive at equity value

Please upload Walmart's:

  • Income statements for 2009-2010
  • Balance sheets for 2009-2010

Once you upload these statements, we can start with the adjustments to calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital. The key adjustments we'll make include:

For NOPAT:

  • Adding back interest expense (net of tax shield)
  • Removing non-operating income/expenses
  • Adjusting for operating leases if present
  • Normalizing tax rates

For Invested Capital:

  • Net working capital
  • Net PP&E
  • Other operating assets
  • Capitalizing operating leases if present
  • Removing non-operating assets

Please upload the financial statements and we can begin the analysis step by step.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:12:47 GMT
User

I uploaded the file: WalMart.xlsx

The income statements are in the worksheet 1a Income Statements and the balance sheets are in 1b Balance Sheets. There is a blank line between Assets and Liabilities in the balance sheet worksheet, so be sure you get both. As you make the adjustments to calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital, explain each adjustment you plan to make and get approval before continuing.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:21:52 GMT
J
Julius

I'll start by loading and examining the financial statements to ensure we have the correct data.

Possibly trying to read an empty or non-existent Excel file.

Python

This code snippet reads an Excel file containing financial data and prints the Income Statement and Balance Sheet from the specified sheets.
{
…
}1 Item
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EmptyDataError                            Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[31], line 5
      2 import pandas as pd
      4 # Read both sheets
----> 5 dataframes = read_all_sheets_from_excel('WalMart.xlsx')
      7 # Display Income Statement
      8 print("Income Statement:")

Cell In[1], line 57, in read_all_sheets_from_excel(path)
     55 Xlsx2csv(path, outputencoding="utf-8").convert(buffer, sheetname=sheet_name)
     56 buffer.seek(0)
---> 57 df = pd.read_csv(buffer)
     58 try:
     59     if df.index[0] != 0:

File /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers/readers.py:1026, in read_csv(filepath_or_buffer, sep, delimiter, header, names, index_col, usecols, dtype, engine, converters, true_values, false_values, skipinitialspace, skiprows, skipfooter, nrows, na_values, keep_default_na, na_filter, verbose, skip_blank_lines, parse_dates, infer_datetime_format, keep_date_col, date_parser, date_format, dayfirst, cache_dates, iterator, chunksize, compression, thousands, decimal, lineterminator, quotechar, quoting, doublequote, escapechar, comment, encoding, encoding_errors, dialect, on_bad_lines, delim_whitespace, low_memory, memory_map, float_precision, storage_options, dtype_backend)
   1013 kwds_defaults = _refine_defaults_read(
   1014     dialect,
   1015     delimiter,
   (...)
   1022     dtype_backend=dtype_backend,
   1023 )
   1024 kwds.update(kwds_defaults)
-> 1026 return _read(filepath_or_buffer, kwds)

File /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers/readers.py:620, in _read(filepath_or_buffer, kwds)
    617 _validate_names(kwds.get("names", None))
    619 # Create the parser.
--> 620 parser = TextFileReader(filepath_or_buffer, **kwds)
    622 if chunksize or iterator:
    623     return parser

File /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers/readers.py:1620, in TextFileReader.__init__(self, f, engine, **kwds)
   1617     self.options["has_index_names"] = kwds["has_index_names"]
   1619 self.handles: IOHandles | None = None
-> 1620 self._engine = self._make_engine(f, self.engine)

File /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers/readers.py:1898, in TextFileReader._make_engine(self, f, engine)
   1895     raise ValueError(msg)
   1897 try:
-> 1898     return mapping[engine](f, **self.options)
   1899 except Exception:
   1900     if self.handles is not None:

File /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/io/parsers/c_parser_wrapper.py:93, in CParserWrapper.__init__(self, src, **kwds)
     90 if kwds["dtype_backend"] == "pyarrow":
     91     # Fail here loudly instead of in cython after reading
     92     import_optional_dependency("pyarrow")
---> 93 self._reader = parsers.TextReader(src, **kwds)
     95 self.unnamed_cols = self._reader.unnamed_cols
     97 # error: Cannot determine type of 'names'

File parsers.pyx:581, in pandas._libs.parsers.TextReader.__cinit__()

EmptyDataError: No columns to parse from file

HINT: Explain options for cleaning the dataset to the user.
Also, evaluate what went wrong and consider options for how to fix it. Break the execution up into cell blocks.
User

Exclude other income from NOPAT. Also, exclude other income from the effective tax calculation, because it is shown as net income. Exclude other assets from the invested capital calculation. What do you plan to do with minority interests and with the obligations under capital leases on the balance sheet? Please state your revised plan and get approval before continuing.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:25:26 GMT
J
Julius

Thank you for the clarifications. Here's my revised plan:

For NOPAT Calculation:

  1. Start with Operating Income:
    • Net Sales (excluding Other Income)
    • Less: COGS
    • Less: Operating, selling, and general administrative expenses
  2. Calculate Adjusted Tax Rate:
    • Remove impact of other income and interest expense from tax calculation
    • Tax Rate = Income Tax / (Earnings before tax - Other Income + Interest Expense)
  3. Apply adjusted tax rate to operating income
  4. Deduct Minority Interest (as it represents operating claims of minority shareholders)

For Invested Capital Calculation:

  1. Operating Working Capital:
    • Current Assets (excluding cash and discontinued operations)
    • Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (accounts payable and accrued liabilities)
  2. Long-term Operating Assets:
    • Net PPE
    • Property under capital leases
    • Add: Obligations under capital leases (since this is operating financing)
    • Goodwill
  3. Exclude:
    • Other assets
    • Other income
    • Cash and cash equivalents
    • Discontinued operations

The treatment of capital leases: Since these are operating assets, I plan to include both the asset value and the corresponding lease obligations in invested capital, as they represent operating assets and their financing.

Would you like me to proceed with these adjustments? Please let me know if you'd like any modifications to this revised approach.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:25:38 GMT
User

Include capital leases in assets. But exclude the obligations from liabilities, because they are really debt items. We will subtract them along with debt when we derive equity value from enterprise value. Please restate your plan again and get approval before continuing.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:27:16 GMT
J
Julius

Thank you for the clarification. Here's my final revised plan:

For NOPAT Calculation:

  1. Start with Operating Income:
    • Net Sales (excluding Other Income)
    • Less: COGS
    • Less: Operating, selling, and general administrative expenses
  2. Calculate Adjusted Tax Rate:
    • Remove impact of other income and interest expense from tax calculation
    • Tax Rate = Income Tax / (Earnings before tax - Other Income + Interest Expense)
  3. Apply adjusted tax rate to operating income
  4. Deduct Minority Interest (as it represents operating claims of minority shareholders)

For Invested Capital Calculation:

  1. Operating Working Capital:
    • Current Assets (excluding cash and discontinued operations)
    • Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (accounts payable and accrued liabilities)
  2. Long-term Operating Assets:
    • Net PPE
    • Property under capital leases (included as operating assets)
    • Goodwill
  3. Exclude:
    • Other assets
    • Other income
    • Cash and cash equivalents
    • Discontinued operations

For Final Equity Value Calculation: Will subtract from Enterprise Value:

  • Short-term borrowings
  • Long-term debt
  • Obligations under capital leases
  • Add back: Cash and cash equivalents

Would you like me to proceed with these calculations? Please let me know if you'd like any modifications to this final approach.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:27:23 GMT
User

do not deduct minority interest from NOPAT. We will subtract minority interests from enterprise value to get equity value. Please restate the plan for approval again.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:29:12 GMT
J
Julius

Here's the final plan:

For NOPAT Calculation:

  1. Start with Operating Income:
    • Net Sales (excluding Other Income)
    • Less: COGS
    • Less: Operating, selling, and general administrative expenses
  2. Calculate Adjusted Tax Rate:
    • Remove impact of other income and interest expense from tax calculation
    • Tax Rate = Income Tax / (Earnings before tax - Other Income + Interest Expense)
  3. Apply adjusted tax rate to operating income (No deduction of minority interest from NOPAT)

For Invested Capital Calculation:

  1. Operating Working Capital:
    • Current Assets (excluding cash and discontinued operations)
    • Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (accounts payable and accrued liabilities)
  2. Long-term Operating Assets:
    • Net PPE
    • Property under capital leases (included as operating assets)
    • Goodwill
  3. Exclude:
    • Other assets
    • Other income
    • Cash and cash equivalents
    • Discontinued operations

For Final Equity Value Calculation: Will subtract from Enterprise Value:

  • Short-term borrowings
  • Long-term debt
  • Obligations under capital leases
  • Minority interests
  • Add back: Cash and cash equivalents

Would you like me to proceed with these calculations? Please let me know if you'd like any modifications to this final approach.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:29:19 GMT
User

the effective tax rate should be calculated as taxes / (income before tax - other income). please revise the plan again.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:31:23 GMT
J
Julius

Here's the final revised plan:

For NOPAT Calculation:

  1. Start with Operating Income:
    • Net Sales (excluding Other Income)
    • Less: COGS
    • Less: Operating, selling, and general administrative expenses
  2. Calculate Adjusted Tax Rate:
    • Effective Tax Rate = Income Tax / (Earnings before tax - Other Income)
    • Apply this tax rate to operating income (No deduction of minority interest from NOPAT)

For Invested Capital Calculation:

  1. Operating Working Capital:
    • Current Assets (excluding cash and discontinued operations)
    • Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (accounts payable and accrued liabilities)
  2. Long-term Operating Assets:
    • Net PPE
    • Property under capital leases (included as operating assets)
    • Goodwill
  3. Exclude:
    • Other assets
    • Other income
    • Cash and cash equivalents
    • Discontinued operations

For Final Equity Value Calculation: Will subtract from Enterprise Value:

  • Short-term borrowings
  • Long-term debt
  • Obligations under capital leases
  • Minority interests
  • Add back: Cash and cash equivalents

Would you like me to proceed with these calculations? Please let me know if you'd like any modifications to this final approach.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:31:29 GMT
User

yes, please proceed with that plan. save the NOPAT calculation in a worksheet of an excel file and save the Invested Capital calculation in a separate worksheet of the same file and provide a download link.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:32:41 GMT
J
Julius

I'll calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital and save them in separate worksheets.

Python

This code snippet calculates NOPAT and Invested Capital for Walmart for the years 2009 and 2010, and exports the results to an Excel file.
User

Explain each line of the NOPAT calculation.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:34:33 GMT
J
Julius

I'll explain each line of the NOPAT calculation:

Item20092010
0
Net Sales
401087
405046
1
Cost of Goods Sold
304056
304657
2
Operating, Selling, and G&A Expenses
77520
79607
3
Operating Income
19511
20782
4
5
Tax Rate Calculation:
6
Income Before Tax
20898
22066
7
Less: Other Income
3287
3168
8
Adjusted Income Before Tax
17611
18898
9
Income Tax
7145
7139
10
Effective Tax Rate
0.4057123389
0.3777648428
11
12
NOPAT Calculation:
13
Operating Income
19511
20782
14
Less: Taxes on Operating Income
7915.8534438703
7850.7089639115
15
NOPAT
11595.1465561297
12931.2910360885
  1. Net Sales: Pure operating revenue

    • 2009: $401,087M
    • 2010: $405,046M
    • Note: Excludes other income as it's non-operating
  2. Cost of Goods Sold: Direct costs of products sold

    • 2009: $304,056M
    • 2010: $304,657M
  3. Operating, Selling, and G&A Expenses: Operating overhead

    • 2009: $77,520M
    • 2010: $79,607M
  4. Operating Income: Net Sales - COGS - Operating Expenses

    • 2009: $401,087M - $304,056M - $77,520M = $19,511M
    • 2010: $405,046M - $304,657M - $79,607M = $20,782M

Tax Rate Calculation: 5. Income Before Tax: From income statement

  • 2009: $20,898M
  • 2010: $22,066M
  1. Less: Other Income: Removed as non-operating

    • 2009: $3,287M
    • 2010: $3,168M
  2. Adjusted Income Before Tax: Income Before Tax - Other Income

    • 2009: $20,898M - $3,287M = $17,611M
    • 2010: $22,066M - $3,168M = $18,898M
  3. Income Tax: Actual taxes paid

    • 2009: $7,145M
    • 2010: $7,139M
  4. Effective Tax Rate: Income Tax / Adjusted Income Before Tax

    • 2009: $7,145M / $17,611M = 40.57%
    • 2010: $7,139M / $18,898M = 37.78%

NOPAT Calculation: 10. Operating Income: Same as line 4 - 2009: $19,511M - 2010: $20,782M

  1. Less: Taxes on Operating Income: Operating Income × Effective Tax Rate

    • 2009: $19,511M × 40.57% = $7,916M
    • 2010: $20,782M × 37.78% = $7,851M
  2. NOPAT: Operating Income - Taxes on Operating Income

    • 2009: $19,511M - $7,916M = $11,595M
    • 2010: $20,782M - $7,851M = $12,931M

This shows how we:

  1. Started with pure operating performance (excluding other income)
  2. Calculated a tax rate based on operating income (by removing other income from the denominator)
  3. Applied this tax rate to operating income to get NOPAT
  4. Did not deduct minority interest (as agreed, this will be handled in enterprise to equity value conversion)
User

Explain each line of the Invested Capital calculation.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:35:39 GMT
J
Julius

I'll explain each line of the Invested Capital calculation:

Item20092010
0
Operating Working Capital:
1
Current Assets (excl. cash and disc. ops)
41479
40284
2
Less: Non-interest Current Liabilities
47638
50550
3
Net Operating Working Capital
-6159
-10266
4
5
Long-term Operating Assets:
6
Net PPE
92856
99544
7
Property under Capital Leases
2797
2763
8
Goodwill
15260
16126
9
10
Total Invested Capital
104754
108167

Operating Working Capital:

  1. Current Assets (excl. cash and disc. ops):

    • 2009: $41,479M = Inventory ($34,511M) + Accounts Receivable ($3,905M) + Prepaid Expenses ($3,063M)
    • 2010: $40,284M = Inventory ($33,160M) + Accounts Receivable ($4,144M) + Prepaid Expenses ($2,980M)
    • Note: Excludes cash and discontinued operations as non-operating
  2. Less: Non-interest Current Liabilities:

    • 2009: $47,638M = Accounts Payable ($28,849M) + Accrued Liabilities ($18,789M)
    • 2010: $50,550M = Accounts Payable ($30,451M) + Accrued Liabilities ($20,099M)
    • Note: Excludes short-term debt as it's financing, not operating
  3. Net Operating Working Capital: Current Assets - Non-interest Current Liabilities

    • 2009: $41,479M - $47,638M = -$6,159M
    • 2010: $40,284M - $50,550M = -$10,266M
    • Note: Negative working capital is common in retail due to inventory turnover and supplier financing

Long-term Operating Assets: 4. Net PPE: Property, Plant & Equipment net of depreciation

  • 2009: $92,856M
  • 2010: $99,544M
  1. Property under Capital Leases: Operating assets financed through leases

    • 2009: $2,797M
    • 2010: $2,763M
    • Note: Included as operating assets while lease obligations will be treated as debt
  2. Goodwill: From acquisitions

    • 2009: $15,260M
    • 2010: $16,126M
  3. Total Invested Capital: Sum of Net Operating Working Capital and Long-term Operating Assets

    • 2009: -$6,159M + $92,856M + $2,797M + $15,260M = $104,754M
    • 2010: -$10,266M + $99,544M + $2,763M + $16,126M = $108,167M

Key observations:

  • Negative working capital reduces the total invested capital needed
  • PPE is the largest component, reflecting Walmart's extensive store network
  • Goodwill shows significant past acquisition activity
  • Capital leases are included in assets but their financing will be treated as debt when converting enterprise to equity value
  • Other assets were excluded as non-operating per our agreed approach
User

Now I want to forecast nopat and invested capital beginning in 2011. I want to drive the forecasts by forecasts of sales growth and financial ratios. Can you recommend a strategy? Please explain how it would be implemented line by line in the nopat and invested capital calculations.

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 12:55:44 GMT
J
Julius

I'll propose a strategy using key financial ratios and sales growth to forecast both NOPAT and Invested Capital. Here's the detailed approach:

Sales Growth and Key Ratios from Historical Data (2009-2010):

  1. Sales Growth:

    • 2010 Growth = (405,046/401,087) - 1 = 0.99% growth
  2. NOPAT Drivers (as % of Sales):

    • COGS Margin = COGS/Sales

      • 2009: 304,056/401,087 = 75.81%
      • 2010: 304,657/405,046 = 75.22%
    • Operating Expense Margin = OpEx/Sales

      • 2009: 77,520/401,087 = 19.33%
      • 2010: 79,607/405,046 = 19.65%
    • Effective Tax Rate (already calculated)

      • 2009: 40.57%
      • 2010: 37.78%
  3. Invested Capital Drivers:

    • Operating Working Capital / Sales

      • 2009: -6,159/401,087 = -1.54%
      • 2010: -10,266/405,046 = -2.54%
    • Net PPE / Sales

      • 2009: 92,856/401,087 = 23.15%
      • 2010: 99,544/405,046 = 24.58%
    • Capital Leases / Sales

      • 2009: 2,797/401,087 = 0.70%
      • 2010: 2,763/405,046 = 0.68%
    • Goodwill / Sales

      • 2009: 15,260/401,087 = 3.81%
      • 2010: 16,126/405,046 = 3.98%

Proposed Forecasting Approach:

  1. For NOPAT:
text
  1. For Invested Capital:
text

Implementation Strategy:

  1. First, decide on assumptions:

    • Sales growth rate for future years
    • Whether to use latest year's ratios or average/trend
    • Any expected changes in margins or capital intensity
    • Tax rate expectations
  2. Create a forecast model that:

    • Starts with 2010 as base year
    • Projects each line item using the ratios
    • Allows for ratio adjustments if business model is expected to change
    • Shows both absolute numbers and ratios for easy review

Would you like me to:

  1. Create this forecast model in Excel?
  2. Discuss specific assumptions for the forecast period?
  3. Focus on particular aspects of the forecasting approach?
User

Please implement the model in Excel.

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 12:57:36 GMT
J
Julius

I'll create a forecast model in Excel that shows:

  1. Historical data (2009-2010)
  2. Key ratios derived from historical data
  3. Forecast assumptions
  4. Projections (2011-2015)

I'll use the last year's ratios (2010) as default starting points but make the ratios adjustable for each forecast year.

Python

This code snippet builds a financial forecast model for Walmart using historical data and assumptions to project future sales, expenses, and key financial metrics.

Let me try reading the Excel file differently:

Python

This code snippet loads an Excel file and reads two specific sheets into pandas DataFrames for further analysis.
{
…
}1 Item

Let me help you analyze the financial statements. First, let's look at what we have and then outline the adjustments we'll need to make to calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital.

Unnamed: 020092010
0
1
Revenues:
2
Net sales
401087
405046
3
Other income -- net
3287
3168
4
Total revenues
404374
408214
5
Cost of goods sold
304056
304657
6
Gross profit
100318
103557
7
Expenses:
8
Operating, selling, and general and administrative expenses
77520
79607
9
Interest expenses -- net
1900
1884
10
Total expenses
79420
81491
11
Earnings (income) before taxes and minority interest
20898
22066
12
Income tax
7145
7139
13
Earnings (income) before minority interest
13753
14927
14
Minority interest
-499
-513
15
Earnings from discontinued operations (net of tax)
146
-79
16
Earnings after tax (net income)
13400
14335
17
18
Average number of shares outstanding (millions)
3939
3866
19
20
Net income per share
3.4018786494
3.7079668908
Unnamed: 020092010
0
ASSETS
1
Current assets:
2
Cash and cash equivalents
7275
7907
3
Accounts receivable
3905
4144
4
Inventories
34511
33160
5
Prepaid expenses and other
3063
2980
6
Current assets of discontinued operations
195
140
7
Total current assets
48949
48331
8
Property, plant and equipment (PPE):
9
Land (property)
19852
22591
10
Plant and equipment (PE)
105968
115257
11
Less: accumulated depreciation
32964
38304
12
Net PPE
92856
99544
13
Net property under capital leases
2797
2763
14
Goodwill
15260
16126
15
Other assets
3567
3942
16
Total assets
163429
170706
17
18
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
19
Current liabilities:
20
Short-term borrowings
1506
523
21
Accounts payable
28849
30451
22
Accrued liabilities and income tax
18789
20099
23
Current maturities of long-term debt
5848
4050
24
Obligations under capital leases due within one year
315
346
25
Current liabilities of discontinued operations
83
92
26
Total current liabilities
55390
55561
27
Long-term debt
31349
33231
28
Long-term obligations under capital leases
3200
3170
29
Deferred income taxes
6014
5508
30
Minority interest
397
307
31
Shareholders’ equity
67079
72929
32
Total liabilities and equity
163429
170706

Based on the financial statements, here are the adjustments I propose to calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital:

For NOPAT Calculation:

  1. Start with Operating Income (before interest and taxes):
    • Net Sales + Other Income - COGS - Operating Expenses
  2. Add back:
    • Interest expense (net) since this will be considered in WACC
  3. Remove:
    • Earnings from discontinued operations (non-operating)
  4. Apply adjusted tax rate:
    • Will use the effective tax rate from the income statement

For Invested Capital Calculation:

  1. Operating Working Capital:
    • Current Assets (excluding cash and discontinued operations)
    • Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (accounts payable and accrued liabilities)
  2. Long-term Operating Assets:
    • Net PPE
    • Property under capital leases
    • Goodwill (since it represents operating acquisitions)
  3. Other operating assets

Would you like me to proceed with these adjustments? Also, please confirm if there are any specific adjustments you'd like me to add or modify before we calculate NOPAT and Invested Capital.

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:22:30 GMT
{
…
}1 Item

I've created the Excel file 'Walmart_NOPAT_and_IC.xlsx' with two worksheets containing the NOPAT and Invested Capital calculations. Here are the results:

Item20092010
0
Net Sales
401087
405046
1
Cost of Goods Sold
304056
304657
2
Operating, Selling, and G&A Expenses
77520
79607
3
Operating Income
19511
20782
4
5
Tax Rate Calculation:
6
Income Before Tax
20898
22066
7
Less: Other Income
3287
3168
8
Adjusted Income Before Tax
17611
18898
9
Income Tax
7145
7139
10
Effective Tax Rate
0.4057123389
0.3777648428
11
12
NOPAT Calculation:
13
Operating Income
19511
20782
14
Less: Taxes on Operating Income
7915.8534438703
7850.7089639115
15
NOPAT
11595.1465561297
12931.2910360885
Item20092010
0
Operating Working Capital:
1
Current Assets (excl. cash and disc. ops)
41479
40284
2
Less: Non-interest Current Liabilities
47638
50550
3
Net Operating Working Capital
-6159
-10266
4
5
Long-term Operating Assets:
6
Net PPE
92856
99544
7
Property under Capital Leases
2797
2763
8
Goodwill
15260
16126
9
10
Total Invested Capital
104754
108167

Key findings:

  • NOPAT increased from $11,595M in 2009 to $12,931M in 2010
  • Invested Capital increased from $104,754M in 2009 to $108,167M in 2010
  • The effective tax rate decreased from 40.57% in 2009 to 37.78% in 2010
  • Walmart maintains negative operating working capital, which is typical for efficient retailers

The Excel file has been saved and can be downloaded at https://julius.ai/files/Walmart_NOPAT_and_IC.xlsx

Would you like to proceed with the enterprise valuation using these calculations?

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:33:21 GMT
Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:34:46 GMT
Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:35:52 GMT
Tue, 22 Apr 2025 12:56:07 GMT
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I've created a comprehensive forecast model in 'Walmart_Forecast_Model.xlsx' with two sheets: Assumptions and Forecast. Let me walk you through both:

  1. Assumptions Sheet:
Metric2010 Actual20112012201320142015
0
Sales Growth
0.0099
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
1
COGS/Sales
0.7522
0.7522
0.7522
0.7522
0.7522
0.7522
2
OpEx/Sales
0.1965
0.1965
0.1965
0.1965
0.1965
0.1965
3
Effective Tax Rate
0.3778
0.3778
0.3778
0.3778
0.3778
0.3778
4
OWC/Sales
-0.0253
-0.0253
-0.0253
-0.0253
-0.0253
-0.0253
5
PPE/Sales
0.2458
0.2458
0.2458
0.2458
0.2458
0.2458
6
Leases/Sales
0.0068
0.0068
0.0068
0.0068
0.0068
0.0068
7
Goodwill/Sales
0.0398
0.0398
0.0398
0.0398
0.0398
0.0398

Key assumptions:

  • Normalized sales growth of 3% (vs 0.99% in 2010)
  • Maintained 2010 operating ratios:
    • COGS/Sales: 75.22%
    • OpEx/Sales: 19.65%
    • Tax Rate: 37.78%
  • Capital structure ratios (from 2010):
    • Negative working capital at -2.53% of sales
    • PPE/Sales: 24.58%
    • Leases/Sales: 0.68%
    • Goodwill/Sales: 3.98%
  1. Detailed Forecast:
SalesCOGSOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeTaxesNOPATOperating Working CapitalNet PPECapital LeasesGoodwillInvested CapitalNOPAT GrowthInvested Capital GrowthROIC
2009
401087
304056
77520
19511
7916
11595
-6159
92856
2797
15260
104754
0
2010
405046
304657
79607
20782
7851
12931
-10266
99544
2763
16126
108167
0
0
0
2011
417197
313797
81995
21405
8087
13318
-10574
102530
2846
16610
111412
0
0
0
2012
429713
323211
84455
22048
8330
13718
-10891
105606
2931
17108
114754
0
0
0
2013
442605
332907
86989
22709
8579
14130
-11218
108774
3019
17621
118197
0
0
0
2014
455883
342894
89598
23390
8837
14553
-11554
112038
3110
18150
121743
0
0
0
2015
469559
353181
92286
24092
9102
14990
-11901
115399
3203
18694
125395
0
0
0

The model shows:

  • Sales growing from $405B in 2010 to $470B in 2015
  • NOPAT increasing from $12.9B to $15.0B
  • Invested Capital growing from $108B to $125B
  • Maintained negative working capital position
  • Steady growth in PPE and other long-term assets in line with sales

The model is saved as 'Walmart_Forecast_Model.xlsx' and can be downloaded at https://julius.ai/files/Walmart_Forecast_Model.xlsx

Would you like me to:

  1. Adjust any of the assumptions?
  2. Add additional metrics or ratios?
  3. Extend the forecast period?
  4. Add sensitivity analysis for key drivers?
Tue, 22 Apr 2025 12:58:24 GMT